Will Deutchbank fail?
Well like nuclear war it’s always a possibility but like nuclear war it’s not something any sane government is going to allow to happen because even the smallest version is cataclysmic. Why do I say it won’t fail with such confidence? We all saw what happened when Lehman failed, and Deutchbank would be the same except, maybe even bigger.
So we’re looking at a dance.
Like brexit the vultures see an opportunity for a scare, to create panic and to push Deutchbank shares down, the global market down and have great short play. The whether it’s the ECB or German government, some entity is going to ride in to save the day and lo and behold it’s not all so bad and time to go long again. Some people are going to be making fortunes out of this.
Of course if you’re a normal investor, you can ride the storm till the ship is righted by government again.
However, while you do that some really smart risk takers will make out like bandits. But even when the ship is righted what are you left with?
Well your paper shares will return with headline numbers to somewhere where they were before.
But behind the scenes a lot of paper money will have been printed, or more accurately more electronic money will have been created to stabilize the ship. Savers or those with assets will have been taken to the cleaners as before, the zero or real negative interest stealth tax.
Whether it’s the German government or ECB that rides in to save the day, global banking will be even that much closer to being a government institution.
We have BOJ, and we are headed to bank of Europe. The U.S. banks are becoming versions of parastatals. So whatever “real” value you still have will be in the hands of government directly or government paper. When the government needs money, your “real” value will be taxed directly or as we see though stealth means.
Government is going to do what it needs to do to keep inflating the balloon
Government is going to keep that house of cards upright, and it will need your money to do so. Central banks can only do so much, and the government is taking over the other banks, while underpinning stock prices to keep pensioners happy.
We can debate the degree to which this is happening.
we can debate how or when it ends, we can debate what it would take to reverse the process, but the fact is its happening. The debate is one of scale and timing, not fact.
No wonder then that tangible assets become ever more attractive to preserve some portion of people’s wealth.
The question with tangible assets is that there are only so much to go around, liquidity can be an issue and with excess demand they can be easily inflated. That’s why something yet to be speculated, with a long, long history of steady value growth. which is globally tradable, highly liquid, and so compact you physically possess any value you like is so attractive now. It’s why DVDs, the world first real investment diamonds are the answer to the challenges of the 21st century.